Livelihood focused Climate Risk Assessment - KAZA

The vision for Kavango Zambezi (KAZA) Transfrontier Conservation Area (TFCA) is “to establish a world-class trans frontier conservation and tourism destination [that]…improve[s] the livelihoods of local communities and thus contribute[s] towards poverty reduction.” The conservation and livelihood objectives of KAZA are inextricably linked because many of the traditional livelihoods within and around KAZA depend on the same healthy, functioning ecosystems. Climate change impacts are already being felt across KAZA. In recent years, residents have reported significant impacts to their livelihoods due to a combination of decreased rainfall, higher incidences of drought, changes in the timing of seasons, hotter days with increased incidents of heat waves, and dwindling supplies of water for such purposes as drinking, irrigation, and livestock production, among other uses.

Climate changes unfolding across KAZA will have profound impacts on the livelihoods of residents. Shorter and increasingly variable rainfall patterns will decrease the reliability of rainfed agriculture, which is vital for regional food security. Drying patterns will further constrain the growth of the tourism industry, as it relies heavily on water to support the wildlife that draws thousands of tourists every year. A longer dry season will also affect livestock production and compound more negative human-wildlife conflicts (HWCs), requiring a more concerted effort to conserve and manage water to meet agricultural, wildlife, and ecological demands. Wildfire weather conditions are growing more perilous, increasing the likelihood of large, runaway fires following rainy seasons and threaten the viability of conservation and carbon storage opportunities and programs. Our modeling also suggests that the spatial extent of flooding will increase and extend well beyond existing floodplains during future flood events. Standing in harm’s way is an intricate network of roadways, tourist lodges, and a patchwork of rural and urban unplanned settlements. Given the rapid amplification of climate threats alongside relatively low levels of adaptive capacity, expanded investments into new markets and new income opportunities (i.e., community-led tourism, conservation-based payment programs, and some non-timber forest products) must first pursue a deeper understanding of anticipated climate risks and what is needed to adapt to them. Solutions for adaptation exist, and many resource- and climate-dependent livelihoods may endure in areas with adequate support. Activities such as farming, fishing, and foraging can benefit from climate information services and expanded access to climate risk finance options. Meanwhile, authorities can help incentivize personal adaptation by making financing more accessible, promoting indigenous knowledge and practices, delivering technical guidance, and ensuring necessary climate-adaptive materials are available in local markets.

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• Livelihood focused Climate Risk Assessment - KAZA