Mapping Climate Risk in the Malawi-Zambia Transfrontier Conservation Area

In 2020 a rural livelihood rapid climate risk assessment for the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region was undertaken. The assessment entailed the development of a vulnerability index representing social, natural, physical, financial, and human capital. Data used to represent the capitals were derived from ten indicators, ranging from measures of multidimensional poverty and gender dynamics, through to gross domestic product, annual soil losses and suitability of soils for crop production. To visualise and identify ‘hotspots’ of future climate risk, the vulnerability index was geographically mapped and combined with future climate projections equating to a world engaged in concerted climate action predicted to result in a mid and end of century mean temperature rise of 1.4°C and 1.8°C respectively (RCP4.5), and a world lacking deliberate climate action with a mid-century mean temperature increase of 2.0°C and end of century mean increase of 3.7°C (RCP8.5). A discussion of resulting climate risk hotspots, deemed to be areas where high vulnerability and climate hazards intersect, was complemented by a systematic literature review of research on agricultural climate risk, adaptation and vulnerability in the SADC region.

Vulnerability mapping results for the Malawi-Zambia TFCA suggested that there is a distinct difference in average vulnerability across the border region. Malawi was, in general, seen to be less vulnerable than the Zambian border region. Within the TFCA, some of the most vulnerable areas were found to be in the western border area of North Luangwa National Park and the adjoined Musalangu Game Management Area. An analysis of the underlying vulnerability data highlighted that gender inequalities are higher than in surrounding areas, with general aspects of poverty and distance to market also regularly falling within the higher mean vulnerability scores for the mapped area. In contrast, relatively high gender equality scores were found in the Lukusuzi region, and partly responsible for areas possessing mean scores in the National Park indicating lower overall vulnerability. Higher average vulnerability scores that do exist in the north of the Lukusuzi National Park appear to be a product of relatively high soil loss in addition to being some distance from a market.

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• Mapping Climate Risk in the Malawi-Zambia TFCA