Tourism market share reconfiguration in KAZA TFCA: Interdependence indexes and CITS evidence from Botswana

Transfrontier Conservation Areas (TFCAs) aim to promote sustainable conservation and economic integration across national borders. In Southern Africa, these transboundary areas are seen as engines of conservation-led development, but the impact on regional tourism markets remains unclear. This study examines the Kavango Zambezi (KAZA) TFCA’s impacts on intra-regional tourism, with a focus on Botswana. Using interdependence and market integration theories, relevant indicators, and Controlled Interrupted Time Series models, results show modest changes post-KAZA. However, interdependence remains asymmetric, with tourist flows mainly in Botswana due to differences in product quality, conservation, and marketing, resulting in the siphon effect and skewed dependence. This suggests that the KAZA TFCA has not yet demonstrated clear evidence of integrated tourism markets or sustained cross-border tourism circuits, as indicated by observed flow patterns and indicators of independence. However, KAZA has implemented UniVisa and collaborative policies that promote equitable benefits. Botswana should leverage its cooperative advantage to promote KAZA’s cooperative branding.

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